For ages, when a dire weather prediction came up lacking, there was little the average person could do beyond shaking a fist at the TV. But now we have Twitter, an outlet not just for bitching, but also for atonement.
Late last night, after New York City and nearby areas went into full disaster-prep mode in expectation of several feet of snow, National Weather Service meteorologist Gary Szatkowski took to Twitter to apologize when it became clear the region would receive only a scant few inches.
For most New Yorkers, the rather extreme weather warnings simply resulted in an early (if frustrating) dismissal from work and a bonus snow day. But there was also a tremendous economic and logistical impact on the communities involved. Recognizing this, Szatkowski, lead meteorologist for the NWS office in Mt. Holly, New Jersey, was effusive in his apologies.
Here's a chronological recap of how Szatkowski's messaging and tone changed from Sunday night to early this morning:
On Sunday, Szatkowski was sharing National Weather Service predictions that anticipated around two feet of snow for the New York area.
Here's regional view of 'reasonable worst case scenario' guidance from @NWSWPC This is for main storm, not clipper. pic.twitter.com/UJfZen2Sxm
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 25, 2015 Looking at latest SREF ensemble, threat of snowfall rates 2 inches per hour (very heavy snow) escalates after 400 PM Monday.
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 25, 2015 Here the new QPF forecast for the next 72 hours. This is a precipitation forecast, as though everything fell as rain. pic.twitter.com/8ZNPPbwTmi
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 25, 2015 But we know everything will not fall as rain. Much of that deeper purple area over land will fall as snow.
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 25, 2015 A rough rule of thumb is 10 inches of snow for every one inch of liquid. So areas with 2+ inches on that map suggest 20+ inches of snow.
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 25, 2015
Sunday afternoon, the National Weather Service released a blizzard warning that largely set the tone for the next 24 hours by calling the storm "a crippling and potentially historic blizzard."
Wow. pic.twitter.com/0mK4c8WYgC
— Dennis Mersereau (@wxdam) January 25, 2015 Here's that updated snow total graphic from @NWS_MountHolly Trended higher (but you're not surprised) pic.twitter.com/KLpvA2g69L
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 25, 2015 Well, it looks like what needed to be done has been done. I believe we are at the part of the recipe where it says: "Just add snow."
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 25, 2015 Another snow forecast map, showing totals across the region. Includes tonight's clipper. We maxed out the scale. pic.twitter.com/1AwByN8zlg
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 25, 2015
By early Monday, though, Szatkowski was beginning to express concerns that earlier predictions might not come to pass, at least not on the level of 30 inches.
OK, to cut to the chase. Some of the more extreme solutions for the storm in this region have ebbed. So, snowfall amounts have been lowered.
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 26, 2015 Here is the snowfall forecast from @NWS_MountHolly issued earlier this morning. pic.twitter.com/Maseg7NsFQ
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 26, 2015 Ever throw a party and then wait for the guests to show up?
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 27, 2015 Let's see how far west the bands of snow rotate & how well they maintain their intensity. Dice have been rolled. We'll see see what happens
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 27, 2015 New snowfall forecast map from @NWS_MountHolly. Amounts have trended lower, but lots of double digit snow on the map. pic.twitter.com/vBTjuArd9n
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 27, 2015
Shortly before midnight, Szatkowski's tone shifted considerably as he and the rest of the National Weather Service realized conditions would not be incredibly severe for New York and New Jersey. By then, government officials had issued road travel bans and suspended mass transit, essentially bringing one of the world's largest cities to a halt.
OK, no sense postponing the inevitable. Snow amounts have been sharply curtailed. New products coming out now from @NWS_MountHolly
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 27, 2015 My deepest apologies to many key decision makers and so many members of the general public.
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 27, 2015 You made a lot of tough decisions expecting us to get it right, and we didn't. Once again, I'm sorry.
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 27, 2015 This is a big storm further off to our northeast. New York City will see good amounts of snow, and for portions of New England it will...
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 27, 2015 ...be very high impact. But for much of New Jersey, and for the Philadelphia Metropolitan area, this is a big forecast miss.
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 27, 2015
As you might expect, he received a few rather pointed criticisms.
.@GarySzatkowski@teelehman do us all a favor and resign!
— Juliet Locke (@JulietLocke) January 27, 2015@JulietLocke No. But thanks for caring.
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 27, 2015
But overwhelmingly, Szatkowski's openness and transparency on Twitter generated vocal support and appreciation from those following his updates.
@GarySzatkowski You guys did a great job in a difficult situation--ignore the haters! I'm a big fan of your honest and direct approach.
— John Huntington (@jhuntington) January 27, 2015@GarySzatkowski People forget that you all predict, not dictate the weather. You all will only continue to improve! Thanks for what you do
— Cory Foy (@cory_foy) January 27, 2015@AlexSilverman@GarySzatkowski@joshtpm Gary has endeared himself to many new people.
— Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) January 27, 2015@GarySzatkowski This is why I trust you. Thanks for your honesty. It's refreshing. Better safe than sorry
— Hannah Waters (@hannahjwaters) January 27, 2015 Thank you to the many folks who have been very gracious on social media this morning. Much appreciated.
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 27, 2015